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AoS Because I like math and Excel

Discussion in 'Seraphon Discussion' started by Wilhelm Stürmer, May 15, 2019 at 9:12 PM.

  1. Wilhelm Stürmer
    Kroxigor

    Wilhelm Stürmer Well-Known Member

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    So, I wanted to see how Ripperdactyls and Terradons compared, as I've been using a unit of 6x Rippers for a bit. This table shows 10 sets of rolls for the respective units attack profiles. The Terradons are a unit of 9, but I assumed only 6 would get into melee and the unit of 6x Rippers are all in melee. These attacks are not done in the Shadowstrike Battalion, so they are not benefitting from the +1 to wound rolls.

    Screen Shot 2019-05-15 at 4.02.59 PM.png

    It's an interesting comparison to me. I used the 12x dice from the Soul Wars box in all of these rolls. Your getting close to the same overall damage, but the ~9 average Mortal Wounds and 9 additional wounds in the unit of Terradons is only costing you 80 more MPP.

    What are your thoughts?

    Would you like to see any other roll comparisons?
     
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  2. ASSASSIN_NR_1
    Bastiladon

    ASSASSIN_NR_1 Well-Known Member

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    Well, not that your dedication to working out the average wounds is not impressive, but is there any reason why you didn't just calculate the average from the to hit and wound rolls?
     
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  3. Aginor
    Slann

    Aginor Fifth Spawning Staff Member

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    Because science!! :D
     
  4. Wilhelm Stürmer
    Kroxigor

    Wilhelm Stürmer Well-Known Member

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    I was also testing these dice, but I felt physically rolling the dice provided a better metric.
     
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  5. LizardWizard
    Skink Chief

    LizardWizard Grand Skink Handler Staff Member

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    Very nice table. I always liked Terradons in units of 9 or 12 personally.

    Why did the Skyblade have 18 attacks?
     
  6. Wilhelm Stürmer
    Kroxigor

    Wilhelm Stürmer Well-Known Member

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    My assumption is that 6 models would be able to get into combat, much like the 6x Rippers I currently run. 6 x 3 attacks = 18
     
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  7. LizardWizard
    Skink Chief

    LizardWizard Grand Skink Handler Staff Member

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    Only the Alpha of the unit can equip a Skyblade. And sadly they have to give up their Bola to take it.
     
  8. Wilhelm Stürmer
    Kroxigor

    Wilhelm Stürmer Well-Known Member

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    OOOOH! Wow, that dramatically changes this table and conclusions. So the only melee attack is the Beaks?
     
  9. ASSASSIN_NR_1
    Bastiladon

    ASSASSIN_NR_1 Well-Known Member

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    Testing your dice is fine, and doing averages on that is too, but I will stress that it is in no way more accurate.
    You should generally just assume that your dice are fair, and if the dice are any good, they will, to a certain margin of error be, but that margin is so small that you likely would not notice unless you tested a whole lot more.

    If I were to use the information of your tables (and ignore the skyblade row), then the terradons do a bit more than half of what the rippers do, which does seem quite underwhelming at first glance; However, they do not need to get in combat, and so can better choose their targets for their attacks, which can do a lot in certain circumstances, and the can deal mortal wounds, which are often worth more than normal wounds, and again they can direct these mortal wounds wherever they like, and lastly they are a bit cheaper than the rippers.

    I see you also assume that the rippers are within range of their blot toad, which is fair to assume, but not always the case, and the toad does slightly limit how freely they can choose their targets.
     
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  10. Wilhelm Stürmer
    Kroxigor

    Wilhelm Stürmer Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough. The first set of dice I used did not seem particularly fair, so I really wanted to run these 12 through their paces, but I certainly understand your point.

    Definitely good point regarding the two attack profiles that don't require charging and pile-in, thus allowing for a retreating maneuver in movement and wider variety of targets. That 5" range on the Bolas seems dangerous, though and you do lose the Beak attacks. The MW output and less cost are good incentives to them as well.

    I did assume the Blot Toad was in range. However, I've had good damage out put from them even when the Blot Toad is not in range, as well.
     
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  11. Cerind
    Skink

    Cerind Member

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    Great initiative!
    I agree though with the previous, if you work with physical dice rolls you are in for a long week, as you should use at least in the order of magnitude of 10 000 (ten thousand) dice rolls on *each* parameter (roughly cutting corners but a few hundred for each simply won't be meaningfuleenough) to be able to assume your dice are actually fair (to be able to neglect their variance). Hence the use of statistical tools and formulae ;)

    You could do it on one set of rolls, comparing a few thousand physical rolls with what the math predicts, to roughly assess your dice.

    It is however interesting - a comparison with proper statistical approaches should bring it from that to predictive :)

    Has anyone ever tried using design of experiment software to do these calculations?
     
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