AoS Need advice on a 1k list!

I’m gonna be proxying a list soon for seraphon to gauge whether I want to start playing them again. I made an 1000 point list and it would be helpful if y’all picked it apart as I have no experience with seraphon (in Age of sigmar anyways, go Lizardmen! Lol) and not much experience list building in AOS (this is a copy paste from another forum just putting it on here since y’all are for lizardbois only so made sense in my head lol)


Slann w/ great rememberer (general)

astrolith bearer

Artillery: razordon*3

razordon*3


Battleline: skinks w/ boltspitters and moon clubs*20

skinks w/boltspitters and moon clubs*20


endless spells: cogs and Bale wind vortex

1000/1000

no battalions

the plan is to teleport razordons and skinks to damage, disrupt, and take objectives while summoning in more razordons and skinks. I don’t know what is best to summon but I also will have salamders to summon when I need to get rid of elites/heroes and I also plan to try out a tactic where I change cogs and try to change the constellation to get plus 3 to charge and then summon an old blood on carnosaur to attempt a charge with said bonus and hopefully a command reroll. I’m also interested in trying to summon trogolodons since they can get plus 3 to charge with their poison spit! I’ve also heard of people summoning terradons but since they can’t use their bombs right away I thought maybe searching for other immediate threats would be better especially since this list seems to lacks damage at times(I test out scenarios and roll dice to see how certain tactic may perform, sometimes math hammer misses some of the important nuances like positioning and damage outside the average.) I’m also new to forums like this so if I made the list in a wrong/confusing format please tell me! I’ll try to fix it

 

The main reason I brought the bearer is because of some math hammer I did that basically shows it increases the skinks damage output by 70 percent over a full turn (two fight phases and a shooting phase) this was in a perfect scenario so it won’t always work out that way but it was so much more effective on skinks then any other unit I tried it with I thought it would help drastically! However now that I’m thinking about it two full units of razordons instead of two units of 3 and a skink hero does sounds tempting...

Here was my Mathhammer to test its effectiveness, please tell me if I’m getting values wrong:

OGOR unit 60 points equivalent (so 4.5 attacks instead of 3 to represent the 20 point OGOR that can’t really exist lol)

4 up rerollable = 3/4. So 4.5 attacks get 3.4 hits. 3 up to wound so 3.4 hits will become 2.25 wounds, and ogors are hard hitters so with damage it becomes 4.5 wounds!

Regular ogors no buff: 4 up 4.5 attacks equals 2.25 hits, 2.25 hits translates to 1.5 wounds, damage modifies it to 3 wounds total. So for ogors rerolling to hit equals 50 percent more damage basically

Ogors damage over a game turn: 9 wounds with a reroll to hit buff, 6 wounds without

60 points of skinks: (the skinks will get one shooting phase as well for this scenario, to make things fair this out I’ll add a second fight phase for both units so it better represents the possible damage output over a game turn)

5 up followed by a 5 up equals 1.1 repeating wounds (this is for shooting)

5 up followed by 6 up equals 0.5 repeating wounds (this is rounded down but it’s negligible what I rounded)

5 up followed by 4 up equals 1.6 repeating wounds (also rounded down a slight bit)

This means skinks do a total of: 5.3 wounds over a game turn! As you can see ogors best them in terms of damage output, and have better armour and command, but with more bodies better bravery and objective control plus good abilities means skinks are better in my opinion

With rerolls: 5 up rerollable equals: 5/9 or a 55 percent chance to hit roughly speaking

5 up reroll with a 5 up follow up: 1.8518 wounds (again this is shooting)

5 up reroll with a 6 up follow up: 0.9259 wounds

5 up reroll followed by a 4 up : 2.7 repeating wounds

So per game turn with two fight phases and a shooting phase the buffed skinks do approximately 9 wounds a turn! Which means an unbuffed skink unit does 58 percent of the damage a buffed skink unit does! This is almost a 70 percent increase in damage! Which is more efficient then the ogors increase! Sorry my math is super messy and I didn’t put the actual calculations I made but basically the way I do it is my putting the number of attacks into a fraction that equals the percent chance: so 10 attacks on a 4 up to hit equals 10*(1/2) or 10/2 which is 5

*edited as I mis remembered how many attacks an OGOR has haha