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8th Ed. Soul of stone mathhammer

Discussion in 'Lizardmen & Saurian Ancients Tactics' started by Celt, Feb 17, 2015.

  1. Celt
    Skink

    Celt New Member

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    At first glance soul of stone looked very unimpressive to me so I decided to do the math.
    Since there are two dice and six ways of rolling each dice, the total number of dice roll combinations is 6*6 = 36. The highest sum possible is 6+6 = 12, and the lowest sum possible is 1+1 = 2. The full list of combinations for each sum is
    • 2: 1+1
    • 3: 1+2, 2+1
    • 4: 1+3, 2+2, 3+1
    • 5: 1+4, 2+03, 3+2, 4+1
    • 6: 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1
    • 7: 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1
    • 8: 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2
    • 9: 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3
    • 10: 4+6, 5+5, 6+4
    • 11: 5+6, 6+5
    • 12: 6+6

    The probabilities of each sum are simply the number of ways divided by 36. Here they are:
    • 2: 1/36 = 0.0278
    • 3: 2/36 = 0.0556
    • 4: 3/36 = 0.0833
    • 5: 4/36 = 0.1111
    • 6: 5/36 = 0.1389
    • 7: 6/36 = 0.1667
    • 8: 5/36 = 0.1389
    • 9: 4/36 = 0.1111
    • 10: 3/36 = 0.0833
    • 11: 2/36 = 0.0556
    • 12: 1/36 = 0.0278

    Miscast:
    2-4 Very bad
    5-6 Bad
    7 best for the wizard but not so much for your bunker (except maybe if your slann is in a skirmisher unit)
    8-9 Bad for all your wizards (although your slann can take a wound and sometimes even heal it if necessary) but good if you are in an expensive temple guard bunker (no template)
    10-12 Very bad for your slann!

    These are your chances with a normal miscast

    2-4. (2.78 + 5.56 + 8.33) 16.67%
    5-6. (11.11 + 13.89) 25%
    7. 16.67%
    8-9. (13.89 + 11.11) 25%
    10-12. (8.33 + 5.56 + 8.33) 16.67%

    With soul to stone there are two different scenarios: 1. Your slann is in a temple guard bunker that you like to avoid being hit by a template with strength 10 hits. 2. Your slann is in a skirmisher unit and you like to preserve you slann and do not really care about a few skinks dying.

    In option one you can change your table to the following:

    2-3. Very bad
    4-5. Bad (lots of strength 10 hits in your temple guard bunker)
    6. Still bad (lots of strength 10 hits but at least your wizard does not get hit)
    7-10. (Remember you can go up one or down one on your miscast roll) All your wizards get hit but no template!
    11-12. Very bad for your slann

    These are your chances:

    2-3. (2.78 + 5.56) 8.84 % (half of the original!)
    4-5 (8.33 + 11.11) 19.44% (your slann will live)
    6. 13.89 % (your slann will live)
    7-10. (16.67 + 13.89 + 11.11 + 8.33) 50% (1/2 chance that your bunker does not get hit and your Slann will be able to handle the strength 6 hit, this is double the chances from the original!)
    11-12. (5.56 + 2.78) 8.34% (Half the chance of something really bad happening!)

    If you have your slann in a skimisher unit and rather have some dead skinks and protect your slann you can change the table in this way:

    2-3. Very bad
    4-5. ok (You will lose a few skinks but your slann will live but might take a wound)
    6-8. Good (You will lose a few skinks but your slann won’t get hit)
    9-10. ok (Your slann will live but might take a wound as well as your other spell casters)
    11-12. Bad!

    These are your chances:

    2-3 (2.78 + 5.56) 8.34%
    4-5 (8.33 + 11.11) 19.44%
    6-8 (13.89 + 16.67 + 13.89) 44.45%
    9-10 (11.11 + 8.33) 19.44%
    11-12 (5.56 + 2.78) 8.34%

    Under these circumstances you actually have a (19.44 + 44.45 + 19.44) 83.33% chance of surviving without anything major happening (you might lose a few skinks or suffer a wound). That means only 16.77% of something bad happening compared to 33.34% without soul of stone!


    Considering that soul of stone is only 30pts (which is likely to be 7-10% of your total slann cost and 1.25% of your total list costs in 2400pts) the changes in the odds both with and without a bunker look pretty solid to me, especially considering that it is not unlikely to miscast at least once during a game (unless maybe when using WD, but then you have to consider that you cast a lot of spells which in turn also increases the chance to miscast on 2 or 3 dice).

    Let me know what you guys think or if I have missed anything
    Cheers!
     
    Scalenex likes this.
  2. rantapanda
    Kroxigor

    rantapanda Member

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    My experience is that it is completely worth the points. Sometimes, its just hard to scrape that extra 25 points cos it just might mean you have to drop entire ripper or chamo squad. Then im not sure if its worth it.
    Theres always some spell what u want to max PD on. And I usually keep my slann in a skink bunker, cohort or skirmishers. so majority of the miscast results are completely harmless.
     
  3. Scalenex
    Slann

    Scalenex Keeper of the Indexes Staff Member

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    Well done Celt! I have included a link to this thread in the LM Handbook and upped Soul of Stone a color rating because of this.
     
  4. spawning of Bob
    Skar-Veteran

    spawning of Bob Well-Known Member

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    Miscast and panic?

    I am an EXTREMELY casual player (everything else I do is deadly serious). I have never had a Slann bunker flee to a miscast.

    If you miscast to death a bunker of, say 20 TG, hitting 8-12 and killing 8. You get to panic and flee. You rally on the Slann's LD.

    If miscast in a bunker of 10 TG (not much of a bunker, but that is what came in my battalion box...) and kill 9. Your Slann and his ex best friend flee and need snake eyes to rally. :( Or you just kill 3, but with other losses you are below your 25% starting unit size. = Panic + snake eyes to rally.

    Bunker the Slann with skink cohorts and I suppose only 5 die to a miscast (Slann in front rank, alone and livin' on the edge). If you started the phase with 18 skinks you will be fleeing.

    Bunker in skirmishers and you might get down to 3 skinks getting nexed. Starting with 10 skinks is your critical mass to avoid fleeing.

    So....

    I've read about reforming your TG bunker to minimize TG miscast casualties (Slann on edge, wide formation), but haven't heard the discussion about mathhammer safest bunkers sizes / shapes with cohorts / skirmishers.

    Too small a unit will blow up cheaply, but could flee your general right off the table.

    Too big and maybe it starts to attract even more evil non cold-blooded love (like hugs, for example) and you've got a Cold Blooded LD 9 Frog panting and saying, "Wait up, fellas!" to his squishy little friends.

    Tactica needed?

    The parameters would be:
    Different bunker types and sizes + Likelihood of falling below 25% of starting models + likelihood of frogplosion causing panic = your name in lights (in MVP Yellow if you received the Scalenic Blessing)
     
  5. Celt
    Skink

    Celt New Member

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    But if you blow up most of your bunker (to below 25%) aren't you still taking your panic test on your normal leadership? (with reroll from being BSB). IF you flee you would have to rally on double 1. Or did I miss something?
     
  6. Scalenex
    Slann

    Scalenex Keeper of the Indexes Staff Member

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    Temple Guard are immune to psychology if the Slann is with them. ItP includes Panic tests. That means Fear and Terror do nothing and Temple Guard always have to hold if with a Slann, never able to flee voluntarily.
     
  7. spawning of Bob
    Skar-Veteran

    spawning of Bob Well-Known Member

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    OK, I can't flee with TG (until they hit zero),

    but what about risks with Saurus, Cohort and Skirmisher bunkers?
     
  8. Scalenex
    Slann

    Scalenex Keeper of the Indexes Staff Member

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    Well if you are in a block of Saurus you get the same death that you get with Temple Guard. Okay a little less because the Slann is in the front rank rather than being surrounded but it's pretty close.

    Skirmishers really want the Slann to get the base contact miscast, it does nothing. They can panic if the the large template smacks them and probably should if the Slann dies.

    Basically everything that goes for dying Temple Guard works for a Skink Cohort bunker of Tet, but it is far more likely to panic if they take massive casualties. You can mitigate this by making Tet's bunker REALLY big. A Slann should not be in a Skink Cohort unless the Cohort is in a building. Then you get Stubborn and a lot fewer template hits.
     
  9. Ixt
    Troglodon

    Ixt Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that I've ever fielded a Slann without Soul of Stone. I've played Munchkin too many times to overlook the power of a 'loaded die.' :p
     
  10. Rettile
    Ripperdactil

    Rettile Active Member

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    Haha you're right, that card is so good!

    back on topic, i have to say i've always underhestimated SoS before reading this topic, but if khaine magic stays i think it would be a bit worse because of that terrible D6 to determine the number of the PDs you can use for your attempts: spamming low casting level spells seems to be the way to go now, and IF should be harder to get now
     
  11. Markhaus
    Saurus

    Markhaus Member

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    After running Soul of Stone for the last few games I think this math hammer forgets an important aspect: psychology.
    In 3 games those were wasted points. 2 of them the only miscasts were prevented by throne of vines (I love the new magic system) and in one game I rolled an 11, then used the "reroll miscast" and rolled a 12 (I had both SoS and a reroll)

    Really bad luck, yes, but it tasted far worse with the knowledge I spent so many points trying to prevent miscasts, and it still happened. Now I don't think I will ever run it again because of the sheer rage. If I had not spent those points and gotten a 10 or 3 I wouldn't have noticed its absence, but when it IS there, and does absolutely nothing on multiple occasions, it causes rage.

    And this isn't iron curse icon's "I threw a measly 5 pts and it did nothing", you expect that, but paying so much for so little just hurts.
     
  12. SilverFaith
    Terradon

    SilverFaith Member

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    But this applies to mostly everything involving chance. I remember my first 3 games using the cube of darkness. I rolled a 1 all 3 times when using it. I didn't pick it up again for like 20 games, until I realized that, while it did suck, it's still really good when it works - same deal with soul of stone.
     
  13. Scalenex
    Slann

    Scalenex Keeper of the Indexes Staff Member

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    I think you both raise valid points. three consecutive bad strings of luck shouldn't make one foreswear something (I probably ought to stop my Ripper fast for similar reasons).

    On the other hand, games are supposed to be fun. If Soul of Stone (or anything else) is impairing one's fun, it should not be taken.
     
  14. airjamy
    Bastiladon

    airjamy Well-Known Member

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    I personally think it's hilarious when my soul of stone/earthing rod combo doe not work or things like that happen. If i lose because of that i just blame it on variance and keep going. WHF is a game where chance plays a role, and you will just lose some games because of it. You will also win some games because of it, so it cancells each other out in the long run. The threat is that you get annoyed by this, or that you make worse choices because of irrational hate for certain items. The PoD hate and the SoS hate are examples of this in my oppinion. I would just keep playing and keep calling the variance, in the end your sound tactics are the only thing you have control over so you should focus on that.
     
  15. owain_b
    Saurus

    owain_b Member

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    Well if I decided not to use something because it didnt work in some games I'd never take a slann again lol

    In the last 3 games I have played my slann with 26 temple guard have been practiacally destroyed in turn 1 or 2. I think I have been cursed.
    All 3 games I have misscast on 2 or 3 power dice casting, and rolled snake eyes on my miscast and all three time the slann has been sucked into the warp killing between 14 and 18 temple guard in the process.

    Quite unbelievable! I'm not looking forward to my next slann's outing but I will be taking one ;)
     

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