Did you shoot the bow into the snakes too FWIW? FWIW, I think Caleb's calcs factor in damage from the missile attacks as well. 4 x damage 3 attacks is nothing to sniff at, and probably contributes to his high estimates.
You might be surprised - I just ran the calc myself and against a 5+ save (which I think Heartpiercers have) a fully buffed Steg averages 50.2 damage. Bear in mind this number accounts for every possible buff: +1 to hit from Skink Priest +1 to wound from finest hour / best day ever, whatever that heroic action is called Rerolling 1s to hit from Hand of Glory Mortal wounds on 6s to wound from star venom Then we've got his attack profiles: Bow: 3 + Prime WB = 4 Javelins: 4 + Prime WB = 5 Spear: 3 + Great Drake + Coordinated Strike = 5 Horns: 2 + Prime WB + Great Drake + Coordinated Strike = 5 Jaws: 2 + Coalesced + Prime WB + Great Drake + Coordinated Strike = 6 Stomps: 5 + Prime WB + Great Drake + Coordinated Strike = 8 We're looking at over 30 attacks, mostly on 2s to hit/wound with a chance for mortals. VS a 5+, 50 damage is well within reason, particularly if we factor in the chance for 2D3 mortal wounds from charging + Stomp.
fair enough. you only have a 30%(not accounting for unbinds and with a +1 to casting) chance of pulling that off but fair enough
I think "well within reason" is still overselling it quite a bit. The snakes also have a shrug. It's a fun thought experiment but you should never get your steg into a combat where the expectation is 50 damage. That's just not a safe way to play the game.
I ran the calculations on a 3rd party website that can presumably run calculations with these buffs, made just for AoS. It matches Caleb's predictions, and I had all the possible buffs on him, plus calculated the ward 6+ on the snakes for the average. Did less than half the predicted damage. I fully understand that this hope based tactic is not the way to go, but there was strategy to the idea, and the entire list was tailored to counter what the opponent was running, and it worked handily. Just making an observation of the damage, that was still enough to tip the scales in my favor. Had a new experience today with the Chief yet again, same setup. Friendly game, and a friend teased me for the tactic I used, saying it will not work on Alarielle. He had all the buffs again, charged and left her on 1 wound. She retaliated, one of the insta kill damage attacks got through, and of course he got a six to slay my Chief. Then, his turn started, and rolled two sixes for the passive heal, crushing my spirit. Won in the next turn tho due to his missplay of leaving objectives unguarded, and simply ran 2x10 skinks onto the objectives of the scenario where you instantly win if you hold all the objectives. Overall, I enjoy the Torpedo Chief greatly, a fun thing to do in casual games, or where there is a plan versus a high value revealed threat where 300 points can kill a lot more, but also remove one of the few threats from the opponents list. A powerful tool in my opinion.
Yeah, the 50 damage calc doesn't account for a shrug - but isn't playing the game based on average expected output how the game is meant to be played? (not a table-topping competitive giant by any means so am asking from ignorance). I mean I wouldn't charge him into 50 wounds expecting to do 50 damage but doesn't that number still serve as a decent benchmark? If I managed to get all these buffs off, and had an opportunity to attack a blob of let's say 30 wounds on a 5+, then I think I would be quite justified in the attempt as an average of 50 damage is still overkill (as it would be in most situations). Obviously it's a dice game and bad rolls can happen but it still seems like a good bet. For me the key is remembering outside variables likely to skew those numbers such as AOD, Unleash Hell, etc. That's why I really like Geminids as it can shift some of those variables back within my control.
As awesome as the math is, I don’t know if this is all that likely. With mystic shield and all out defense a 5+ is a fair bit less common. That said it clearly is a good chaff clearing unit and probably useful for dealing with screens. Although there is also another can of worms on if it’s worth all that to clear light infantry
Yep, this is what I'm grappling with. Chief is great on paper but as he's prone to die to focused damage in the next turn, finding a target worth trading him for is the real struggle
tbh that is a struggle with most stuff in aos. reminds me quite a lot of the fusionstar tau players used to run, could run it up the board and delete anything before getting wiped. imho the best solution to this might be trying to add some support to the assault where you throw in more stuff and try to break an enemies control over the entire area
Great question! Your example is spot on i'd say. You're underestimating your damage and not relying on "average" rolls. you need to do 30 wounds to a 5+ and "on average" you do 50. That way even if you spike low you'll still probably come out with the expected results. Average results are tricky in aos because thats the 50% mark. You're just as likely to do less as you are to do more. I just think it's easy to get caught into this sort of "max damage" trap. How often does a Steg Chief have all those buffs on him, and shot his bow+javs into the same target as he's charging? Not much, and its easy to just shrug off "oh it's only a +1 to wound (or reroll 1s, or i didn't shoot my bow into it blah blah) how much difference could it really make?" and the answer is a lot. And then things like shrugs come into play and it wildly swings the numbers. You just don't build your plan around average rolls. And unless you have a super, super clear idea of exactly how much damage each buff is adding, exactly how much damage each buff to their save/shrug is removing, it's just a good idea to always underestimate your damage IMO. You were bracketed twice from unleash hell which will obviously tank your damage numbers quite a bit assuming you didn't spend the CP to fight at top bracket. You also didn't clarify if your bow went into the target or if you also had your starpriest buff on him. All those things have a pretty drastic impact on the damage done. The numbers i posted earlier were correct given the parameters i set in that post. Only advice is to keep using him to get a better feel for the damage. You might certainly be spiking low.