The Random Thread of Random Randomness

Yes. Another Terry Gilliam film. He was a brilliant director.
Had the pleasure of rewatching Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas the other day.

 

What?
The helmet or the grandma?

 

It's an interesting question.

Mathematically it is straight forward. The 50% chance at $100 million button is the better choice, as on average the it pays off $50 million per push. So from a purely mathematical perspective, it outperforms the sure thing by a factor of 50 to 1.

Real life is a bit more complicated though. $1 million is still life changing money, and it is a sure thing. You know what you are getting, you can rely on it. I can more easily accept taking $1 million, knowing that I gave up the chance for $100 million than I could rolling the dice and ending up with zero and squandering guaranteed life altering money.

So while the maths is clear, and I know which one I "should" choose, I'd probably play it safe and take the sure thing. I'd be willing to give up the best case scenario ($100 million) in order to eliminate the worst case scenario (ending up with nothing). I am more risk averse by nature.

 

So the $1 million dollar guarantee then?

 

I have a similar stance, but also thought:

I currently do ok without the guaranteed 1 million, so ending up with nothing isn't all that bad. (Albeit leaving a bitter aftertaste )

Grrr, !mrahil

 

...while I am ok with the idea of eating tacos for a month, my wife would take offense and probably divorce me just from the smell.