8th Ed. Cold Blooded Leadership Probability

Discussion in 'Lizardmen Discussion' started by Nuclear, Aug 21, 2010.

  1. Nuclear
    Skink

    Nuclear New Member

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    If this has been posted before, I couldn't find it. I wrote this up a while ago in excell when doing math hammer calculations for my eldar-runes of witnessing being pretty much the same as cold blooded. Since I had the chart already, I added some calculations for lower Ld and rerolls for BSB, and here it is, assuming my math and/or chart is solid.

    Note that the chance of failing on a reroll is the chance of failing one, squared, not divided in 2, a common mistake.

    All probabilities are percentages.


    ld check....pass.........fail........pass w/ reroll......fail w/ reroll
    10............98.15.......1.85.......99.966...............0.034
    9.............94.91........5.09.......99.741...............0.259
    8.............89.35........10.65.....98.866...............1.134
    7.............80.56........19.44.....96.219...............3.781
    6.............68.06........31.94.....89.796...............10.204
    5.............52.31........47.69.....77.261...............22.739
    4.............35.65........64.35.....58.588...............41.412
    3.............19.91........80.09.....35.852...............64.148
    2.............7.41..........92.59.....14.266...............85.734

    And since that looks really hard to read, here is it in pic form:





    Commentary:

    As you can see, it is nearly impossible for you to fail rerollable Ld9-10. So the chances of breaking and having your slann BSB die because of breaking from combat are slim to none. Now, I am new to WHFB, but I don;t know of much outside doom and darkness in lore of death that can modify Ld in a way that immune to psych and stubborn don't negate.
     

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  2. ancient stegadon
    Cold One

    ancient stegadon New Member

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    i also havn't seen this topic yet, i think you did a great job i shows good how awesome cold-boolded is ;P
     
  3. 1Legion
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    1Legion New Member

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    Very awesome stuff, thanks for doing and posting this, I was curious as to how well it actually worked, and now I see it's greater than I thought. Much appreciated!
     
  4. Bibamus
    Bastiladon

    Bibamus New Member

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    there was a similar topic long ago, its probably lost in the dark tunnles of the forum by now, so this is quite usefull. also, don't underestimate the possiblity of rolling 6-6-5 and then 6-6-6. i have seen wizard miscast in the 1st then and then rolling snake eyse back in 7th. i know the chances of that happening are greater, but they are possible, and unfortuantely, you can't order the dices to follow the statistics.
     
  5. hellbreaker
    Troglodon

    hellbreaker Member

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    Very nice.
    Indeed there was topic about this some months ago, but it didn't handle re-rolls I think.
    I have one thing to say though, since I've yet to fail a LD 10 test with 'cold blooded' (40k, Eldar, Runes of witnessing actually) more than 2 times in what may be nearing 3 years I wish the best of luck to those of you who experience a run-away slann more than once.

    My fellow gaming friends learnt this the second after most of them decided that statistics are the end-all be-all answer.
    Having one guy with a 2+ save not fail a single one save after being bathed in fire after his 5 bodyguards (2+ saves) died to a single salvo changed their opinion about it.

    Cheers!
     
  6. Nuclear
    Skink

    Nuclear New Member

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    I find that when you do fail a Ld check and can reroll it, ALWAYS make sure those dice are rolling. Too many times I've seen someone pick up a die and just kinda drop it, only for it to not really bounce at all, landing on the same number. Especially a problem with larger, or sharp edged dice.
     
  7. ancient stegadon
    Cold One

    ancient stegadon New Member

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    i didn't have that problem yet but nice to be warned for it anyway ;p
     

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