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Tutorial Cold Blooded Probability

Discussion in 'Lizardmen & Saurian Ancients Tactics' started by spawning of Bob, Feb 19, 2013.

  1. spawning of Bob
    Skar-Veteran

    spawning of Bob Well-Known Member

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    This cursed world we live in has tiny pockets of order and predictability. For example, there is a brief, perfect moment when a general’s forces are arrayed in splendid order, ready to execute every component of the Old One’s plans. Then the battle commences, and everything goes to pot.

    The only reason that Lustria’s finest do not crush all lesser beings beneath their claws is because of the most pervasive and insidious servants of Chaos that have ever manifested themselves in the real world.

    incominge.jpg

    Dice. Like the most corrupt acolyte of Tzeentch, they whisper of hope while delivering despair. How have we been deceived for so long when their dark nature is in their very name? Many dice. One DIE. The promise of 6 parry saves conceals 30 paths to annihilation.

    Lizardmen in general, and the Spawning of Bob in particular will not bow to this tyranny! We will tame these savage beasts and use their power against the ruinous forces which threaten the perfect plans of the Old Ones! Read on and learn:

    funxg.jpg

    For 1D6 the only particular skill is to roll well (and often)

    safelifting.jpg

    The whole 2D6 principle is also not too hard to figure out. It boils down to a nice bell curve (with a roll of 7 being 6 times as likely as a roll of 2 (or 12)). Adding the chances together will give you a nice table such as the following (or it would be a nice table if lizardmen glyphs could import formatting)

    Charge (2D6 chance of rolling equal or higher)
    Distance to hit 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 10+ 11+ 12+
    % chance to roll 100 97 92 83 72 58 42 28 17 8 3

    However, 2D6 is the allowance given to the pathetic, wavering weaklings of the world ! We are the mighty cold blooded Lizardmen and we will (eventually) hold firm. (See future article on initiative). (eventually)

    Rolling 3D6 and subtracting the lowest / highest is a complex proposition. Bob does not pretend to understand (well......he pretends, but no one believes.......)

    payattention.jpg


    However, pretense, belief or knowledge are irrelevant when the Old Ones have provided plaques of wisdom such as this (conveniently rounded to the nearest whole number. The Old Ones are considerate if nothing else):

    Swiftstride Charge or Flee (Highest 2 of 3D6)
    Distance 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 10+ 11+ 12
    % Chance to Roll 100 99 98 95 89 81 68 52 36 20 7

    When this knowledge is applied, it can have devastating results......

    chargec.jpg


    But now, for the all important issue of leadership. Lustria will triumph through the perseverance of her doughty warriors . We will dominate. (eventually)

    Cold Blooded Leadership (lowest 2 of 3D6)
    Roll required 2 3- 4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- 11- 12-
    % Chance to roll 7 20 36 52 68 81 89 95 98 99 100

    Of course you will need to modify your rolling intention (as if that ever works)

    leadership.jpg


    The way Bob uses this sacred knowledge is to keep a cheat sheet in his battle plans folder (yes, the green folder from his wife’s visit to the Continence Foundation Conference in 2009. Thanks for asking. Yes, she was attending as a delegate not because of some embarrassing little problem. Thanks for asking)

    The sheet has the following graphs:

    chargeo.jpg


    swiftstride.jpg


    coldblood.jpg


    Bob will refer to these to work out which risks he is prepared to take. This has no effect on the actual dice roll or the likelihood of him fleeing off the board, but it does make him feel like a real general.

    The data used above is attributed to Sammy the Squib on Librarium Online (in his efforts to educate the puny Vampire Counts about the mighty Lizardmen), and from other sources. It is worth following this link to appreciate that no one, anywhere has any idea how this stuff works.

    http://www.librarium-online.com/forums/lizardmen/66555-cold-blood-ld-probabilities.html


    Except for you. I trust you have been paying attention.

    u2xh.jpg
     
    Lizardmen!!, Jorgik, Sudaj and 4 others like this.
  2. Stormfrog
    Saurus

    Stormfrog New Member

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    Brilliant. Just brilliant. 'Nuff said.
     
  3. n810
    Slann

    n810 First Spawning

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    Brillinat and Hillarious. :smug:
    nice one Bob. :artist:
     
  4. Qupakoco
    Skink Chief

    Qupakoco Keeper of the Dice Staff Member

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    Great post. Remember kids, "Knowing is half the battle." The other half is either luck or deployment.

    I think it'd be cool to have a density map to reference for casting spells. Like have number of dice used on the x-axis and spell casting level on the y-axis. Then the middle can be a color-scale or grey-scale that corresponds to chance to succeed. Maybe I'll try to make one.
     
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  5. n810
    Slann

    n810 First Spawning

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    Here ya go....

    Math-Hammer-LD.jpg
     
  6. Caneghem
    Carnasaur

    Caneghem New Member

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    I think the rapturous standard is gone now that the new WoC book is out.
     
  7. n810
    Slann

    n810 First Spawning

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    likely, this was a prety old file....
    I got a better one some where on this site ,
    I can't seem to find it Though.

    Edit: ahh here's the whole thing....

    Math-Hammer.jpg
     
  8. Caprasauridae
    Stegadon

    Caprasauridae Well-Known Member

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    So educational. And fun! Thanks a ton for sharing! I should also but these to my "battle folder".
     
  9. Player not found
    Jungle Swarm

    Player not found New Member

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    Hmmm, interesting tables...

    One interesting result I see out of these is the "optimal" # of dice to cast/dispell a spell - Just divide your target by 3, round, add 1 , and you get the same result as seen on the table...
    4/3 = 1.33 -> 1 +1 = 2
    11/3 = 3.66 -> 4 +1 = 5
    etc...
    (Which means if you're looking at getting at lease 90% chance of success, don't bother with the table!)
     
  10. Lizardmatt
    Troglodon

    Lizardmatt New Member

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    The casting table doesn't properly track odds of irresistible with multiple dice.
    For example, if you 3 dice needed a total of 16+ (meaning rolling a 16, 17 or 18) odds of success are listed at
    4.6%.
    But odds of rolling irresistible (any combination of double sixes, or a triple six) is 7.4%.

    I have not worked out the probabilities for the bigger dice drops (rolling 4, 5 and 6 dice), because the math gets messy.

    I'd also like to have an expanded table out to 24+, for those people who want to 6 dice a spell on a level 1 or level 2 caster.

    Since 6 dicing gives you a ~25% chance of Irresistible, I'm curious to see the success rates at high levels, since it is possible to get into the low 20's without miscasting.

    -Matt
     
  11. n810
    Slann

    n810 First Spawning

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    The third section down on the chart I posted is the irrestible force chart,
    with the dice used in the different colums up to D6.

    Ps. I would guestamate about a 78% chance to get 20 on 6 D6.

    Pps. don't forget to subtract your casters level from the spell cost.
     
  12. Mathias Eilenberg
    Jungle Swarm

    Mathias Eilenberg New Member

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    I once failed BOTH rolls on a panic test on my TG-unit with my Slann...

    0,3 %
    sigh....
     
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  13. spawning of Bob
    Skar-Veteran

    spawning of Bob Well-Known Member

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    I once spent all the dollars on hard cover End Times books, then the gaming system and fluff background immediately got superseded by a four page pamphlet.

    Sigh...
     
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  14. NIGHTBRINGER
    Slann

    NIGHTBRINGER Second Spawning

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    Ouch... and those were Australian prices you paid weren't they?
     
  15. airjamy
    Razordon

    airjamy Active Member

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    Damn, you are the first one i have ever hear who said that! Closest i cam was failing the first roll and then rolling triple 5's, close, but they were still standing. I have always taken Discipline from that point on ;)
     
  16. NIGHTBRINGER
    Slann

    NIGHTBRINGER Second Spawning

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    Temple Guard + Slann are immune to psychology... no panic test required.
     

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