Can someone in the UK give me context for what is going on? (Political)

Whatever helps you sleep better at night.

 

Clearly you say?

Let's bring in my pal, ChatGPT (yes I know that it can make errors, but so can humans).

My prompt:
Is China, as a potential superpower, on the rise or decline?

ChatGPT's response:

China’s trajectory as a potential superpower is complex, and whether it is “on the rise or decline” depends heavily on which factors you prioritize—economic, military, technological, demographic, or geopolitical. Let’s break it down systematically:

1. Economic Factors

• Rise: China remains the world’s second-largest economy, with a huge manufacturing base, major export strength, and growing technological capabilities. Belt and Road Initiative investments expand its global influence.
  
  
• Challenges: Economic growth is slowing. Debt levels, real estate instability, and declining productivity growth are significant concerns. Demographic pressures (aging population, shrinking workforce) may constrain long-term growth.
  

Verdict: Rising in absolute size and global influence, but growth rate is slowing, making sustainability uncertain.

2. Military Power

• Rise: China has modernized its military rapidly—expanding its navy, missile capabilities, and cyber/space operations. It can project power regionally (South China Sea, Taiwan) and potentially globally in the next decade.
  
  
• Challenges: While regional strength is impressive, global expeditionary capability still lags behind the U.S. Some technologies are still catching up, and strategic logistics for long-range operations are complex.
  

Verdict: Strong regional rise; global projection still developing.

3. Technological Capabilities

• Rise: China leads in certain areas (5G, renewable energy, AI research, high-speed rail, some quantum tech). It is investing heavily in self-reliance due to geopolitical tensions.
  
  
• Challenges: Reliant on foreign semiconductors and advanced chips, which limits cutting-edge tech independence. Export controls by the U.S. and allies slow some progress.
  

Verdict: Rapid rise, but bottlenecks remain in high-end tech.

4. Geopolitical Influence

• Rise: China exerts influence via trade, loans, diplomacy, and soft power projects (media, Confucius Institutes). Growing role in international institutions.
  
  
• Challenges: Tensions with U.S., EU, India, and neighbors could isolate it. Hard power projection is mostly regional, and aggressive posture (Taiwan, South China Sea) may provoke pushback.
  

Verdict: Rising influence globally, but strategic overreach could provoke resistance.

5. Demographics and Internal Stability

• Challenges: Aging population, declining birth rates, and potential social unrest threaten long-term sustainability. Rising inequality and environmental degradation also pose risks.
  
  
• No clear rise: These factors are structural headwinds that could slow or even reverse gains.
  

Overall Assessment

• Short-to-medium term (next 10–20 years): China is still on the rise—economically, militarily, and technologically—albeit with slowing growth and increasing geopolitical friction.
  
  
• Long-term (30+ years): Structural challenges (demographics, debt, environmental limits) and geopolitical pushback may limit superpower status or even trigger relative decline if not managed.
  

Bottom line: China is rising, but the pace is slowing, and its trajectory is fragile. Unlike the U.S., which has structural advantages in demography, alliances, and innovation, China’s ascent faces more internal and external constraints.

 

A strong contender.

My prompt:
Hypothetically, if the USA were to fall as the world's superpower in the next 10-20 years, compile a list (with percent chance) of the most likely countries to become the next global superpower.

ChatGPT's response:

Got it. Let’s think through this carefully. I’ll base the assessment on a combination of economic size, military capability, technological innovation, geopolitical influence, population, natural resources, and strategic position—the key elements that historically define a global superpower. I’ll assign rough probabilities, keeping in mind this is speculative.

Most Likely Contenders to Become the Next Global Superpower (if the USA declines in 10–20 years)
Rank Country Approx. Chance Notes

1 China 40% Already the closest rival; massive population, economic growth, technological advancements, and military expansion. Challenges: debt, aging population, environmental issues, internal unrest.

2 India 20% Huge population (soon to surpass China), fast-growing economy, emerging tech and defense sectors. Challenges: infrastructure gaps, political fragmentation, social inequality, regional tensions.

3 European Union (as a bloc) 15% Economic strength and technological base are significant, but fragmented political decision-making and slow defense integration weaken global projection. Could emerge as a “collective superpower.”

4 Russia 10% Strong military, nuclear arsenal, energy exports. Limitations: economic stagnation, demographic decline, over-reliance on hydrocarbons, limited global soft power.

5 Brazil 5% Resource-rich, large population, regional dominance in South America. Challenges: political instability, infrastructure gaps, economic volatility.

6 Japan 4% Advanced technology, strong economy, strategic alliances (esp. with USA). Limitations: small population, limited military autonomy, geographic constraints.

7 Indonesia 3% Emerging economic giant in Southeast Asia, young and growing population, strategic maritime location. Challenges: infrastructure, governance, regional competition.

8 United Kingdom 2% Global financial hub, soft power, strategic alliances. Limited by size, demographics, and military constraints.

9 Turkey 1% Regional military power, bridging Europe and Asia, growing economy. Limitations: domestic politics, economic instability, limited global influence.

Observations:

• China is the clear frontrunner, but the path isn’t guaranteed; internal pressures could slow its rise.
  
  
• India has high long-term potential because of demographics and IT/innovation capacity.
  
  
• The EU could collectively act as a superpower, but only if political cohesion strengthens.
  
  
• Countries like Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Turkey are more “regional to global aspirants” rather than full global superpowers.
  

 

That's true.

What major gripe do you have with the information presented, besides the slightly out of date population data (negligible effect on the analysis)?

India might overtake China as a superpower candidate (we can speculate), but as of today it's still China in the lead by a pretty substantial margin. China's economy is larger. China's military is stronger. China's technological innovation sector is greater. If the USA disappeared today, China would be king (at least for the time being). The further we go into the future, the less accurate our predictions become.

With all due respect, I think you're a little too close to the situation. Your hatred/dislike/opposition blinds you.

 

That's quite the pickle you've gotten yourself into. Any new information provided to you is automatically filed in under CCP lies and propaganda. Sounds like a head in the sand scenario. Confirmation bias is a powerful thing.

The evidence is readily available. Here are just a few tidbits to consider:

• China is one of the leading contenders to be the first nation to put a man on Mars. If it weren't for Musk, China very well might have been the leading contender. They also successfully, built, launched and operate the Tiangong space station in Earth's orbit. China has also landed an unmanned rover (Zhurong) on Mars. Space exploration isn't cheap... or easy.
• BYD has surpassed Tesla as the largest EV producer in the world. (despite being massively tariffed; you can't buy one in Canada for instance)
• in terms of recent Olympic performance, overall China only really trails the USA.
• China's TikTok (despite being a plague on western society) is immensely influential among the younger generation. The most influential outside of the American social media giants.
• As of right now, Ne Zha 2 is currently the worldwide box office leading movie of 2025. As of writing, it's sitting at $1,996,112,023.

Those are just a few off the top of my head. I'm not presenting these as all encompassing absolute markers of a superpower, but they are indicators to various degrees (especially the first one).

Last piece of evidence. If China weren't a potential emerging superpower, and were on the brink of collapse as you suggest ("I expect they will be defunct within 20 years."), then you probably wouldn't be so obsessively fixated on them. Why don't you focus on Russia, North Korea or Iran; all of whom are worse actors on the global stage. Because China has power which makes them a threat in your mind.


We don't know what the future holds, but as @Killer Angel pointed out, they are one of the current day global superpowers.

 

That's true. That one is a self inflicted wound.

A lot of European countries are having similar issues right now, and I truly hope that one of them absolutely crashes and burns in the near future. But I didn't want it to be the UK. I have fond memories of my time in England.

 

As I've mentioned above in this thread, the UK isn't 'crashing and burning'. Yes, there are some issues right now, but, as with any nation, they only occur in some parts of the country and not others. Some places may be shitholes, but there are lots of places in other nations that are shitholes too (and after seeing excerpts of a TV programme on Detroit recently, I can safely say that nowhere in the UK is as bad as a place riven with shells of houses burnt down by gangs and abandoned by their fleeing inhabitants, and households of drug dealers around every corner). Britain as a whole is not the vision of a hellscape riddled with knife-wielding teens that the sensationalist media and unpatriotic moaners have been promoting.

Though at least you've had the common sense to acknowledge that similar problems are happening elsewhere in the West (though I hope you remain aware that Western nations outside of Europe also have significant issues), I'd have still thought you'd have the respect for us over in Europe to want us to free ourselves out of these problems rather than at least one nation 'crashing and burning'.

Can't speak for London because I don't live there, apart from the fact that Khan as mayor is filling it with foreigners, but around here in the South nothing so ridiculous has happened as in the quoted Short, partly because we've thankfully remained Conservative. London's problems don't reflect the rest of the country.

All in all, I can't understand why you all continue to listen to random moaning idiots in the political echo-chamber that is YouTube, when I've clearly stated in previous posts that the country I live in, though it has issues, is not 'broken', 'failed' or in any way worse off than anyone else, no more than anywhere else in Europe or the US.

Funnily enough an article in a recent issue of 'The Week' magazine covering this whole palava (a politically unbiased publication over here covering global issues) includes the following passage from The Times,",... the figures don't back [the view of a 'failed', 'lawless' Britain] up. Britain is far safer than it was 30 years ago. Over a period of huge inward migration, most crime had fallen by about 90%. NHS data indicates that violent assaults requiring hospital treatment are down by nearly a half. The trouble is, some very visible crimes, such as shoplifting, have surged. Meanwhile, on social media, where most people get their news, many accounts are doing very good business by reporting extensively on a few particularly horrible crimes. So though people feel safer on their own streets, they still think things are going to the dogs". The Times itself is a politically central and comparatively unbiased paper, and I'm inclined to agree with it. Social media posters are very much overexaggerating and generalising a few serious and/or especially visible incidents (which every country gets), and this is capitalised on by Farage, Reform and other so-called 'right-wingers' who (ironically, like Labour did before they got into power) are playing up the fallacy of 'broken Britain' to attract voters into seeing them as the only solution to imaginary problems. These people are in fact traitors to disrespect their country in such ways, and should not be listened to.

Trust me, I live here in Britain, and unlike these moaners, I love my country - if anything really bad does happen, I'll be sure to give you all my sane (more so than these YouTuber half-wits, some of whom, for all we know, are probably being paid by Russia to damage national morale here) opinion on it... but as it is, things are still fine here... and would you rather trust the word of a friend who has shared your love of Warhammer across the years, or some goon on YouTube spouting hyperbole and misinformation?

 

Yeah, this also is increasingly becoming a Western issue as a whole - social media being as unpoliced as it is allows misinformation to spread like wildfire, and with these posters being so vocal, it is easy to be convinced that their views are indeed true, and that they apply everywhere across the country. AI bots are also adding further fuel to the fire by masquerading as human posters and spreading even more misinformation. I don't get my news from social media, but if the aforementioned Times article is true and a lot of people do these days, and wilfully digest it all without question, then that very much explains the recent increase in tensions on both sides of the political spectrum.

In this day and age, if you want to see the state of your nation, then the best I can recommend is just to look around you and see what your neighbourhood and different places you visit are like, and how people behave - that will show you the real state of the nation. Generally here in Hampshire, life is still pretty peaceful and normal as it always has been - most people are just getting on with their lives and living normal, comfortable existences, aside from a few moaners on either side protesting politically but peacefully... and thus I'm content to know that, certainly around here, things are fine, proving that any words of generalised doom and gloom are just nonsense.

Trust your own views and experiences, rather than rumours perpetrated by others .

 

Detroit is a hellscape shithole. But that is a different discussion.

I never once claimed that all regions of the UK were "crashing and burning". I'm sure there are very lovely spots that, at least from now, have remained untouched. And I truly hope that these areas continue to remain untarnished. I'm not cheering against you (UK), I'm cheering for you. We're on the same side. Like I said, I spent ten months in London about a decade and a half back, and have very fond memories of my time there. So when I see videos of the things going on in London, it genuinely makes me sad... and then angry. It doesn't look like how it did back then. It's slipped very badly over a relatively short time.

I don't dispute your observations on how the trouble is localized. Currently, the UK is probably dealing with problematic spots. But you know what happens when you see a spot of mold on a piece of food, come back a little later and it has spread. So the problems in London might well be knocking on your door in a few years time (but I sincerely hope it doesn't).

It's happening all over the place. Europe, USA, Canada and Australia are all suffering from variations of the same thing. It's not a competition, but a warning for our mutual wellbeing.

You misinterpret my motives. Let me use an analogy. Sometimes a doctor has to amputate a limb to save the patient. The loss of the limb is a terrible price to pay, but it's better than the patient dying. The limb in this case is the country that I'm hoping will crash and burn. Let me explain.

The west and western values are under attack. We're literally allowing ourselves to be invaded. I don't care about where someone is from or the pigment of their skin, that stuff is irrelevant. What I do care about is someone's culture, values and principles. My parents immigrated (legally) to Canada and they happily accepted the customs of this country, share its values and became productive citizens. They love this country and are proud to be here. They didn't come here to change this place and they made successful efforts to integrate into their new home. However, when you let people in who hold values that are diametrically opposed to your own, bad things will happen. A while back I saw a video of a Muslim preacher/agitator somewhere on the streets in the UK speaking loudly into a megaphone. He openly said to his assembled followers that the UK will eventually fall under sharia law. That they will outbreed (yes I know you guys don't like that word, but it was his point) the local population. When Britons have one child, they will have six or seven. In a generation or two, they will outvote you. This was not some sort of secret plan, he was shouting it for all to hear, with no fear or remorse. I wish I could link the video for you, but I watched it months ago and wouldn't know where to find it now. Make no mistiake, the numbers are shifting faster than we might like to admit and there is an impeding inflection point on the horizon. So we are left with a problem that could have been solved very easily ten years ago, is problematic to solve now, will require bloodshed to solve in the near future and soon after that it will be unsolvable.

The trajectory seems clear as day, but our governments are running headlong into it. They (and enough of the voting block) don't see the reality of it. And this takes us to my "crash and burn" strategy. Should a major European country go completely under (an accelerated version of what I just laid out), then maybe, just maybe it might wake the others up. The same thing would happen if Canada crashed and burned, but of course, since I live here, I'd rather it be France or Germany rather than it happening to us. (we've all got our loyalties)

The best case scenario would be that no country needed to go under, but without it, I don't people will come to realize the danger until it is too late. So yeah, I would very much sacrifice European country "X", in order to save Canada, USA, Hungary and the UK. Speaking of Hungary, Victor Orban was the first to see it. Hungary is one of the few European countries that is not to be suffering from this. He shut down the border right away and told the EU to fuck off. But, election after election his adversaries grow. It only takes one bad election for all that work to be undone. But if major European country "X" were to fall, then the Hungarian voters might take notice and say "hmmm.... look what happened to those guys, maybe we shouldn't go down that path". And the Canadians, Americans and Brits might take notice too.

I fear that the alternative to the light bulb moment of seeing a major country falling, is that we all cross that point of no return together, and we all crash and burn together. So no, the ideal scenario in my mind is not for a European country to fall, it's just better than the (more probable) worst case scenario that may come to pass in its stead.