Let's say the level 4 is casting with 2 dice vs. the level 2 unbinding with 1.
why then are you arguing so confidently on that which you know so little of?
You're only proving my point. I understand that AoS is your game, but since that's the case, maybe you shouldn't try to argue WHFB mechanics when you know nothing about the topic. Normally I wouldn't nitpick such a small point
but 
... since you're trying to lecture me about a game you don't even know how to play, there is no "unbinding" in WHFB 8th edition. This isn't AoS, you don't unbind, you dispel.
You're so sure of yourself, but at the same time you can't even get the basic terminology correct.
This isn't meant as an insult against you. I don't play AoS. I know very little about the game. I am not in a position where I can debate the finer points of the game. I can make gross level observations and comparisons with WHFB, but I do not have the requisite background knowledge to explore and debate the intricacies of the game's mechanics.
Let's say the level 4 is casting with 2 dice vs. the level 2 unbinding with 1.
The only way a magic phase starts with that scenario is in the case of a winds of magic roll of 1 & 1. The odds of that are 1 in 36, (3%). In such a rare scenario, the level 4 is overwhelmingly favored to get a single low to mid casting value spell off, but nothing else. That should be considered a good magic phase for the player defending with the level 2.
Let's say the level 4 is casting with 2 dice vs. the level 2 unbinding with 1. You're going to unbind 4 out of 216 spells, so about 2%.
Sure, it's better than nothing, but it isn't exactly impressive. Unless your opponent casts an absurd amount of spells you'll regularly go multiple games without succesfully unbinding.
You've pulled these numbers out of nowhere and then did some mathhammer on those fictious numbers. The old computing phrase "
garbage in, garbage out" applies here. This "data" is absolutely worthless and is in no way reflective of the actual dispel rate a level 2 wizard would expect (under average dice rolls) against a level 4 caster.
Which is the point. You get a unit, which on a regular basis will fail to do one of its core tasks. Not because you made a mistake, or your opponent played better. But simply because your opponent has better stats. That sucks.
Once again, your demonstrating that you have no knowledge of how 8th edition magic is played.
I will admit, if the level 4 casting wizard throws all of his dice at a single spell, it is unlikely that the level 2 will be able to dispel it. However, that means that the level 4 wizard is only casting a single spell that phase, which isn't exactly a dominate magic phase. Even a level 2 has a good chance of slipping a single spell past a defending level 4 wizard using that tactic.
In nearly every real game scenario, the level 4 player will want to slip multiple spells through. This means that he has to split and allocate his dice across multiple castings. It is here were the defending level 2 wizard must decide which spells to focus on and how many dispel dice to invest. The level 2 can't dispel them all, but with proper strategy he should be able to snipe 1 or 2. Remember, in 8th edition, spells are not cast on a fixed number of dice like in AoS (to be fair, I'm not even sure if AoS still uses that simplistic system). When casting a spell you can choose to try to cast it with anywhere from 1 to 6 power dice (so long as you have sufficient dice in your power pool) and when dispelling you can allocate any and all dice the you have available in your dispel dice pool.
As an example, say you're conducting your magic phase with your level 4 wizard and you've rolled a 2 & 4 for your winds of magic. You now have 6 power dice to my 4 dispel dice...
If you throw all 6 at a single spell, unless you are unlucky you will likely get it through. But that's it. Unless that spell is amazingly devastating, I'd be happy as the defending player. Especially as you risked a miscast on your very expensive level 4.
On the other hand, if there are 2 spells you really want to cast, what do you do? You'll get one through, but under average conditions, I'll dispel the second one. You could allocate 3 dice to each of the two spells, but I'd be slightly favoured to dispel either one of those two casts with my 4 dispel dice. Alternatively you might allocate 4 dice towards the spell you want more. As the dispeller I can see what you rolled to cast the spell and decide if I want to try to dispel it. If you rolled average - high, then it is risky for me to dispel. I can either take to risk if I deem it important enough, our save my 4 dice and easily dispel your second spell as you only have 2 power dice remaining. Obviously these are just a couple of simple scenarios. The possible permutations are extremely large, and that's where the player's skill comes in. The skill involves reading the battlefield, the power/dispel pools, the spells available to the other player and the odds of dispelling on different combinations of dispel dice. It is involved, and complex.
I mean, have fun building an interesting strategy around a 2% successrate....
Once again, this is a bullshit number. It isn't real. If you are dispelling at a success rate of only 2%, you either don't know how to play the game at all or the dice gods hate you with an undying passion.
The direct conflict revolves around a straight forward roll-off
It's not a straight forward roll-off for the reasons I mentioned above. We're not dealing with the simplistic 2d6 casting system of AoS (which is the reason I hate AoS magic). The WHFB magic phase is far more nuanced and anything but straight forward.
For example if the only practical ways to compete with a level 4 is to either a) bring a level 4, or b) completly ignore magic for that game (unless you get lucky and kill him early on), that kinda sucks as it limits playstyles.
The ways to tackle an opposing level 4 is to:
- fight fire with fire and take a level 4 yourself
- mitigate some of his magic with a level 1 or 2
- concede the magic phase and focus on the other phases with the points saved
The point of Warhammer is not to win the magic phase, but to win the game. A solid magic phase can help you win the game, but so too can any of the other phases. Players have a multitude of playstyles and strategies available to them.
. You're falling back to your ill-informed (unsupported) stance that a level 2 doesn't get to do much of anything even though it has been definitively proven otherwise. Their offensive impact has already been demonstrated mathematically. Unless you can find an error/limitation in the math-hammer provided, your viewpoint in null and void. Opinion < Fact. Defensively, it is undoubtably that a level 4 casting against a defending level 2 (casting advantage of 2+) is going to be less effective (on average) than the same level four casting against an army with no defending wizards at all (casting advantage of 4+).
