Discussion in 'Other Armies Discussion' started by NIGHTBRINGER, Sep 27, 2020.
My prediction was skullcrushers first and kdaii second.
So i was wrong, but not so much.
I agree for the exact reasons you stated. It does leave them disadvantaged against certain units.
It really is the ultimate wild card of the tournament. I had no idea how it would do and it is probably one of the most difficult units to predict.
I'm really starting to feel that the Beasts of Nurgle will make it into the top 3.
Here are the standings after 8 rounds of competition (and with 7 rounds left to go):
I'd say that the only things that have been decided are the first and last place positions. There are little pockets of absolutely fierce competition both at the top of the standings and the bottom. These units will probably shuffle around quite a bit round by round. We have a general trend of who will finish high and who will finish low, but within those broad domains there is a lot of room for movement.
Very true, I had not realized how well the Beasts of Nurgle were doing!
I definitely think the top three are right there in the top four, if you get what I'm saying.
I'm now thinking of my predict for places 4, 5 and 6 for a bit of variety
I think that is fair. Not to say that others stand no chance at all, but those are the most likely. I think the Executioners will be very hard pressed to do it because they have a pretty harsh schedule ahead of them. I actually think the HPA has a chance, because its remaining matches (at least by eye) seem easier for it than for some of the other competitors (the same can be said for the Trolls as well).
I would summarize the odds of finishing in the top three as follows:
virtually assured ➽ K'daai Destroyer
medium-high probability ➽ Beasts of Nurgle, Witch Elves
low-medium probability ➽ Skullcrushers, HPA, Executioners, Chaos Trolls
extremely low probability ➽ Savage Orcs, Demigryphs
no chance ➽ everyone else
Time for the start of round 9!! Skullcrushers of Khorne vs. Chaos Trolls
Key rules in play:
Skullcrushers: Brass Behemoth, MoK (riders only)
Chaos Trolls: Regeneration, Troll Vomit
This was always predicted to be a difficult matchup for the Skullcrushers and like the Demigryphs and Mournfang before them, the Skullcrushers had to eventually pay the Troll Toll. In the end, the Trolls are anti-armour specialists, which negates the Skullcrushers' main line of defense. Large pool of wounds, regeneration and troll vomit for the win!
After two straight massive losses, the Trolls are now on a two fight massive win streak. This puts them right in contention for the top 5 and maybe even the top 3. The Skullcrushers, with the expected loss, find themselves in a three-way tie with the Trolls and the HPA for 5th place.
With the Skullcrushers sustaining a massive loss, the K'daai Destroyer remains the sole contender to have yet to be dealt a massive loss!
Does this result shake your confidence in the Skullcrushers, or did you expect as much after the Trolls did the same thing to the Demigryphs and the Mournfang? Any confidence in the Trolls?
That was expected. Trolls are scary opponents... hate the vomit.
Speaking of expected....
K'daai Destroyer versus Black Guard of Naggarond
Key rules in play:
Black Guard: ASF, Murderous Prowess, Stubborn
K'daai Destroyer: Unstable, Unbreakable, Blazing Body, Bound Fire Daemon, Frenzy (D3 Attacks)
The expected result when you bring S4 non-poison and non-magical attacks against the K'daai Destroyer. This was always an impossible hill for the Black Guard to climb.
The Destroyer continues to separate itself from the pack, while the Black Guard are now tied for third last.
The Black Guard have an interesting set of matches yet to fight, some hard, some easy and some that look to be close. Where do you expect them to go from here?
I don't see the Trolls gaining sufficiently in any of their upcoming fights to be able to make it to top 3.
I still predict Skullcrushers coming in #2 as I think they will gain back points on the remaining match-ups.
I see them staying about where they are to be honest.
They'll lose against Demigryphs (only makes them a 2+ save ), then they'll lose to Witch Elves, they will probably get a small win on Executioners as they will have the advantage of ASF, they will lose to Beasts of Nurgle and Savage Orcs and even the Soul Grinder.
Not a good future for them unfortunately.
That's a tough hill to climb. I would be pretty impressed if they were able to claw their way back into #2.
I'm inclined to agree, but top 5 is definitely a possibility.
It will be a tough road ahead. I am curious as to how they will fair against the Witch Elves. Their ASF's will negate each other, but the Black Guard still have their Eternal Hatred to fall back on. It will be a good fight.
Next match! Hell Pit Abomination versus Arachnarok Spider.
Key rules in play:
HPA: Regeneration, Stubborn, Special Close Combat Attacks
Arachnaork: Natural Armour (4+), Poisoned Attacks (Spider only), Stubborn, Venom Surge
A huge upset victory for the Spider, who barely survives the match with 0.7 wounds remaining (another match that nearly ends in an elusive draw). I believe someone had predicted that the Spider had a fair chance in this matchup (was it @Killer Angel ?). Still, it's always a surprise when the spider manages to win one.
Bear in mind though that the HPA is at a pretty substantial points disadvantage, but unfortunately nothing can be done about that.
The HPA's offense is slightly mitigated as it has two attacks that hit every model in base contact, which in this case only happens to be a single model. In the end, they were pretty equal in all regards except the Spider has 2 extra wounds. That was the key difference maker.
The HPA falls out of the top 5, while the Spider remains in dead last... and still well clear of anyone else. Interestingly the top and the bottom of the standings are mirrored (12, 7, 5 vs. -5, -7, -12).
Can the HPA claw its way back into the top 5?
I predicted the Spider winning this one I think...
I don't see the HPA coming back up personally. I think it will win against White Lions, Hammerers and Soul Grinder then lose against Chaos Warriors, Beasts of Nurgle and the Savage Orcs.
That was a good call.
I agree that it will lose to the Beasts of Nurgle, but I can see it beating the Chaos Warriors and having a chance against the Savage Orcs. They will be interesting matches though, one way or the other.
Match time. White Lions of Chrace vs. Har Ganeth Executioners.
Key rules in play:
White Lions: Martial Prowess, Stubborn, ASF and ASL cancel each other out
Executioners: Hatred (High Elves), Murderous Prowess, ASF and ASL cancel each other out
Another obvious result. The Executioners had the heavy advantage due to their Hatred special rule, having more models and wounding more efficiently.
The White Lions are now tied for second last place with the Mournfang. For the time being, the Executioners leap frog over the Beasts of Nurgle for third place (the Beasts have yet to fight this round).
Does anyone else share my feelings that the Executioners will fall significantly from their current spot (3rd place)? I figure that 4 out of their remaining 6 bouts are going to be pretty tough.
Well, I think you're basically correct...
They'll lose to the K'Daai, they will win against the Mournfang's (sniff, sniff), I think they'll lose to both Dark Elf units as they will be striking last and only have one attack, they'l be beaten by the Beasts of Nurgle and will win against the Hammerers.
So basically, I think spot 5 or 6 in the end.
Yep, that was me.
(dance of victory)
well, the rivals are Executioners, Beast of Nurgle and which elves.
i believe the remaining match ups for Skullcrushers should be victories (aside the one vs K'daii), so it's good for them
Executioners should fall back
if my prediction about the Skullcrusher victories is true, then the BoN can afford to lose only 1 match (and i don't think they will lose 2, judging from their remaining opponents)
the which elves are 2 pts ahead, so they should collect at least 2 massive losses.
i fear their best best will be 3rd place.
That's my thinking as well.
It was a solid prediction!
I don't think the Skullcrushers will move past the Beasts or the Witch Elves. They should be able to surpass the Executioners, which might leave them in a battle with the Trolls for 4th place (although the Trolls are always difficult to predict because of the extreme but fragile nature of their wins and losses). I think that out of the top contenders (excluding the Destroyer) the Beasts and the Trolls have the easiest remaining schedule, while the Executioners have the toughest one. Of course, it only takes one or two surprise results to change everything.
The next matchup is for @Lizards of Renown and @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl ...
Key rules in play:
Witch Elves: ASF, Frenzy, Murderous Prowess, Poisoned Attacks
The Witch Elves were always going to be hard-countered in this matchup. 2+ armour and a parry save negates S3 poisoned attacks any day of the week. The Mournfang pick up their very first Massive Victory!!
Of note, in terms of standings alone (because we all knew how this match was going to play out), this was the biggest "upset" of the tournament. The Witch Elves entered his match with +7 points (second place), while the Mournfang entered with -7 points (second last place). The Witch Elves drop back into 3rd place while the Mournfang have finally moved out of second last and are sitting comfortably tied for 13th place.
Can the Mournfang keep the momentum going and finish outside of the bottom 2? Are @Lizards of Renown and @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl satisfied with the results of the match?