8th Ed. The wind spell

My rough and ready statistics make it 53.7% chance of getting a specific spell if you have 3 rolls.

Wait no I left out some cases...

64.35% I think.

No damn it... To many cases that time...

Screw it: somewhere between ~55-60% chance

 

Rolling 3 dices has 216 deffirent outcome.
You want any of the results that include a 3 (atleast I think the wind spell is number 3)
After going through some number crunching on a paper, i find that you have 55+36 outcome, which include atleast one 3.
(55+36)/216*100 = 42,13% (Yes there's a 3/6 = 50% chance of getting a 3 in a roll of the 3 dice, but a 42,13% chance of doing a roll of 1 or more 3´s.

Now, you also have the chance to roll a double, thus selecting the number 3.
Again, after slave-like number crunching:
(6*16)/216*100 = 44,44%

So.. Chances for rolling, either a double turning it into a 3, or rolling a 3, using 3 dices are:
44,44%+42,13% = 86,57%

Which is a pretty fair chance imo - GW made it pretty damn easy to get the spells you want (You are practically sure of getting the spell you want with 4 dice (Being a lvl 4 wiz)

- Which actuallt leads me onto another point; Going for loremaster on a slann is going to be a waste, if you don't expect yourself to be using every single spell. (With life you are going to do so, so then it's all good) - But if you are going for say Metal, you only really want 3 spells for most cases, and in that case the +1 spell only costs 15 points, meaning you just saved yourself 35 point .

 

But some of those double and triples are already included in your cases where there are 3s. So you have over estimated.

To fix it we need the minus: (cases were there are doubles/triples AND 1 or more 3).

So we have:

The case triple 3 (3,3,3) = 1/216

The case double 3 and something else (3,3,X/3,X,3/X,3,3) = 1/6*1/6*5/6*3 = 5/72

The case single 3 and another double (3,X,X etc) = 1/6*5/6*1/6*3 = 5/72

I make that at 31/216. Or 14.35%.


So 86.57% - 14.35% = 72.22%...

That still seems wrong. I'll make a new thread on this soon...

 

Oh yes. I totally overlooked those.
Thanks for reminding me

But.. i do believe 72% is about right, and in that case my point still stands about the slann. you're still pushing 90% of getting a wanted spell with 4 dices. even more with 5 abviusly.

Sorry if i'm thread-jacking a tad now, though.