I agree, he's probably better in a lot of situations given that he's at a native +2 to casting now, and can easily get to +4 with Astrolith and Sage's Staff. The Astrolith will still give him a 6+ ward save, and Guard still make it difficult to get any chip damage through to him anyway.
The problem that a lot of people have, and that I also agree with, is that the wounds rule is pure randomness, and while that may add tension it rarely adds fun. There are definitely going to be quite a few games where Kroak takes like 4-5 wound and then dies, and that just makes you feel like a single random dice roll loses you the game. That's never fun. It also hurts him competitively, as you need consistency with competitive lists and while he's still good, the fact that you might randomly lose him after he takes 2 damage is always going to be in the back of your mind, even if it's statistically very unlikely.
On the flip side, you're also going to have a lot of games where your opponent manages to deal like 12-14 wounds to him through heavy focus fire, and not only does he not die, he heals all that damage immediately. That's going to have a lot of people whining even more about Kroak than they do now, I think. Because everyone naturally thinks about Murphy's Law in these types of situations. So Seraphon players are going to be fearing the random death, and our opponents are going to be fearing the random survival. Just a weird rule for that reason.
All that said, the statistics are still in Kroak's favor, because you're still going to be running Saurus Guard with him in most situations, and they'll take most of the damage for him. If you bring an Astrolith Bearer, that's a ward save on top of that. So he's still really survivable in most situations. Yes, the threat of a random roll killing him will always be there, but I do think he'll still be fun to use and probably still seen in a lot of competitive lists.
On the topic of the AoS 3e confirmations, I'm still going to be playing on the larger board size, as I don't do tournaments and the bigger area to move in is a lot more fun. The thing about monsters dealing "monstrous damage" sounds cool, but I have a feeling that they'll still be easily shot off the table. And how much do you want to bet that the "totally awesome" charge abilities they're hinting at will be for everybody but Seraphon, because apparently our monsters just don't deserve to be as good as everyone else's...
Apparently we're not only getting charge reactions, but *everything* reactions. So CP generating heroes like ours will be even better, it would seem. And I hope that the Endless Spells going off in each Hero Phase also applies to our Bound versions. Being able to smack hordes with Purple Sun or debuff with Geminids on both turns sounds really awesome. This sounds like it really opens up a lot of new play options. For example, you could turn the Cogs speed effect off in your opponent's turn, but switch it back in yours. You could hit an enemy hero twice with Quicksilver Swords, etc. I'm guessing this rule has to do with the way they've been playing up how "difficult" it's supposed to be to pick who goes first and second, because it will also affect how you get to move Endless Spells. I have a feeling that this will just make everyone but Seraphon less likely to take them, due to more randomness, but Seraphon more likely to take them, because MOAR MAGIC!!
As long as Bound spells get to use this rule, that's at least one new rule that benefits Seraphon instead of nerfing us.
I really don't know why they seem to think that going first was such an advantage. But I was a bit worried with the smaller board sizes meaning it's even easier to get bombarded with shooting or charged by your opponent's entire army turn 1. At least they seem to be trying to balance that with the extra CP and reactive command abilities for those who go second. But really, going second was rarely a huge disadvantage. You were always hoping for the double-turn anyway. I wonder how much these reactive CA's are going to balance out the double-turn. It sounds like if you go second, you get more CP to defend with. Then if you get the double, your opponent gets more CP to defend with. Hopefully that balances out.
All in all, I'm hopeful for 3e, although I'm sure the hype about the "water-tight" rules being the "bestest ruleset evaarr!" will disappoint in some areas. As a Tau fan, I was really disappointed by how 40k 9e absolutely gutted ranged factions like Tau and IG, and I was worried that AoS 3e would do the same for us. But now I'm much less worried about how Seraphon will fare in the new edition, although I'm sure we'll have to wait till near the end of 3e to get our new battletome again, lol!
